Not many would have expected Lumbini Lions to reach the final of the second edition of the Nepal Premier League a few weeks ago. They suffered three consecutive defeats after winning their first game, and were just one loss away from getting knocked out of the tournament. Yet tomorrow, they will walk out against the Royals in the Super Saturday final. Some turnaround.

And then everything started to change for the Lions. The Sri Lankan wicketkeeper-batter Niroshan Dickwell joined the squad, D’Arcy Short began scoring runs, Sher Malla went from strength to strength, and Tilak Bhandari got more overs under his belt. Suddenly, they have won five in a row and are now locking horns with the tournament favourites, Sudurpaschim Royals.

To put things into perspective, Lumbini Lions had won only 2 out of 11 games (across two seasons) before this unbeaten run. As D’Arcy Short said in the press conference, they have nothing to lose. The pressure will instead be on the Royals to win their maiden title after losing the final last year. The Royals have been nearly flawless in this competition, except for one game where Biratnagar Kings hammered them in no time on the back of quick-fire fifties from the openers.

The Royals didn’t miss Australian duo Chris Lynn (ruled out) and Josh Brown, as they won convincingly by 77 runs (the biggest win margin this season in terms of runs) against Biratnagar Kings in the first qualifier. New joinee Mukhtar Ahmed didn’t make much of an impression (10 off 10), but Sheldon Jackson played a decent cameo — 20 off 11 — in his first outing. Harmeet Singh (2/20) and Scott Kuggeleijn (2/9) continue to perform, while Abinash Bohara has increased his wicket tally to 16, only one behind Lamichhane now.

Toss factor and pitch

Teams winning the toss haven’t had much success this season. Only 9 wins in 31 games — which makes you wonder whether teams are unsure what to do upon winning the toss, as Kathmandu Gorkhas head coach Monty Desai suggested. Last year, teams winning the toss triumphed in as many as 14 matches. For the broader audience, though, it’s better if matches are decided by the better team on the day rather than by the flick of a coin.

The average first-innings score this season is 152 (154 before the qualifier), still above last season’s 144. Sudurpaschim Royals posted 155 and won comfortably in the first qualifier. Yesterday, Lumbini Lions also defended 134 easily as they bowled out the Kings for just 94. Out of 8 occasions where teams have batted first this season, only one ended in victory.

This forces teams to chase with the expectation of restricting the opposition to a subpar total or benefiting from dew. But that’s where teams have lost more games this season — because the ball has continued to turn even in the second innings. It puts teams in a catch-22 situation. However, both Rohit and Dipendra looked confident about either batting or bowling first, regardless of the toss. Interestingly, both are yet to notch a fifty in this competition. They might just be saving their best for the last.

The Royals look favourites for this contest; similar to last year, they won’t take the Lions lightly. They faced Janakpur Bolts, whom they had defeated twice earlier in the tournament, batted first and posted 184 on a good track — but it didn’t prove enough as Lahiru Milantha’s 49-ball 87 powered Bolts to the title. As Scott Kuggeleijn said, it won’t feel good if they end up finishing second again.

The Lions, coming off a forgettable last season, will want to extend their winning momentum to title glory. They start as underdogs, but they have certainly shown in the last five matches that they can punch above their weight.

Key Battles

Scott Kuggeleijn vs D’Arcy Short
After a slow start in the first five games (not a single 30-plus score), Short has registered four consecutive 30-plus knocks, including a half-century. His form has been crucial to the Lions’ success at the top. Royals’ spearhead Kuggeleijn has a key job in hand if they are to stop Short and the Lions in the final.

Sher Malla vs Binod Bhandari
Last season, Bhandari scored 235 runs. This season, he has bettered that with 264 so far — currently second on the charts. Malla, on the other hand, has been the Lions’ biggest trump card. He has taken a wicket in his first over on five occasions. Bhandari will also have to deal with Rubel Trumpelmann, who has taken 12 wickets so far.

Awaiting stats

• Binod Bhandari (264) needs 60 runs to go past Adam Rossington and take the lead in the run charts.

• Rohit Paudel (260), despite not scoring a single fifty, is only four runs behind Bhandari. He needs 64 more to go past Rossington.

• D’Arcy Short is 81 runs behind Rossington.

• Sandeep Lamichhane (17) went ahead of Abinash Bohara (16) after taking two wickets in the last game. Bohara needs two wickets to go past him.

• Sher Malla, who has been outstanding this season, is three wickets behind Lamichhane.