By Sharachchandra Bhandary

As March 5 approaches, election campaigning in Nepal is intensifying. To persuade voters, the three major political parties have announced their candidates for Prime Minister. To become Prime Minister, one must first be elected as a member of parliament. The three prominent figures contesting in the electoral arena are KP Sharma Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist, CPN-UML), Balendra Shah of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), and Gagan Kumar Thapa of the Nepali Congress have been projected as Prime Ministers. Across 165 seats, a total of 3,406 candidates have been fielded by 66 parties and independents.

In the previous election, the Nepali Congress emerged as the largest party in the House of Representatives, winning 88 seats—56 under the first-past-the-post system and 32 through proportional representation. The Congress had contested in alliance with the CPN (Maoist Centre), the CPN (Unified Socialist), and the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party.

The UML secured 45 direct seats and 34 proportional representation seats, with its vote share considered satisfactory at the time, bolstering chairman KP Sharma Oli. Over the past three and a half years, however, the UML has steadily lost credibility. Oli has faced legal controversies linked to Rabi Lamichhane, chairperson of the RSP, who was involved in alleged misappropriation of cooperative funds, and public disputes with former Kathmandu Mayor Shah. Public perception also holds Oli and the UML accountable for the deaths of 76 people, including 22 shot during the Gen Z protests.

Candidates of established parties, emerging forces, and independents are going door-to-door to seek votes, reflecting a nation grappling with change. The surge of new parties, including the RSP, stems from momentum generated by the Gen Z-led protests last September. Driven by youth anger over corruption, unemployment, and governance paralysis, these demonstrations have evolved into a decisive national moment. This election is widely seen not merely as a constitutional exercise but as a referendum on whether the political system can respond to a new generation’s demands for accountability, transparency, and tangible reform.

In the aftermath of the protests, a new Nepali Communist Party emerged, uniting nearly a dozen leftist factions, though only two had previously been represented in Parliament. Including the Maoist Centre’s 32 seats and the Unified Socialist Party’s 10 seats from the last House, the combined presence would have totaled 42 seats. Leaders from the Biplav faction, Bamdev Gautam, and Bhim Rawal joined the new party, although some leaders of the Unified Socialist and Maoist Centre chose not to merge, which may hamper opposing parties in the polls.

The September 2025 protests highlighted deep frustration among young citizens burdened by limited job opportunities, rising inflation, outward labor migration, and persistent corruption. Youths in urban and semi-urban constituencies openly demanded leadership capable of curbing corruption, strengthening institutions, generating employment, and delivering effective governance. For many first-time voters, this election represents an opportunity for merit-based leadership and accountability rather than party loyalty.

Senior leader Dr. Prakashchandra Lohani expressed disagreement with Balendra Shah’s behavior, saying that a person aspiring to become the country’s Prime Minister who does not wish to engage in dialogue with the public may be suited to an authoritarian-style state, but such an attitude is unacceptable in an open democratic society.

Social commentators have weighed in on the stakes. Social worker Mukunda Poudel warns that many new parties lack organizational depth and clear ideological platforms, which could fragment the vote. Sociologist Uddhab Pyakurel stresses that sustaining the reformist spirit of the Gen Z protests within parliamentary frameworks will be the ultimate test. Political analyst Gaja Sharma adds that it will be particularly tough for KP Sharma Oli, a three-time Prime Minister, who led the government during the Gen Z protests, leaving him and the UML vulnerable to public criticism. Pushpa Kamal Dahal (three-time Prime Minister, Nepali Communist Party) and Gagan Kumar Thapa, President of the Nepali Congress—the oldest political party in Nepal—remain central actors. Thapa, a young leader who has emerged through internal party reforms and rebellion, is widely regarded as one of the most influential figures in contemporary Nepali politics. Their parties maintain strong grassroots networks and influence in rural constituencies, yet many voters question whether long-dominant leaders can implement reforms demanded by a younger, more aspirational electorate.

Challenging the traditional guard are leaders who have built reputations outside conventional hierarchies. Former Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah symbolizes urban reform and youth empowerment. Dharan’s former mayor Harka Sampang has cultivated strong grassroots credibility. Renu Dahal, daughter of Prachanda and twice elected Mayor of Bharatpur, commands a loyal local base. Technocrat Kulman Ghising, widely respected for ending chronic power shortages, entered politics by forming the Ujyalo Nepal Party. Political observers note that “Kulman represents a shift toward performance-driven politics,” though his attempt to merge with the RSP was unsuccessful, costing his party proportional representation gains and the return of some prominent figures. Meanwhile, with several of Kulman’s former colleagues joining it, the RSP has expanded its national reach, leaving his party struggling for visibility.

Key constituency battles this election include Jhapa–5, where a high-profile contest is unfolding between Oli and senior RSP leader Shah. Voters say it will be tough for Oli this time, while many youths strongly support Shah. In Jhapa–2, former Speaker Devraj Ghimire and former Deputy Speaker Indira Rana Magar of the RSP go head-to-head. In Chitwan–3, Renu Dahal faces RSP candidate Sobita Gautam. Rabi Lamichhane is competing in Chitwan–2 for the seat he previously won, even after a citizenship controversy and subsequent by-election victory. He faces challengers including Mina Kharel of the Nepali Congress, Ashwin Ghimire of the CPN-UML, and Pratap Gurung of the Nepali Communist Party, making this a highly contested race.

Meanwhile, in Tanahun-1, Swarnim Wagle of the RSP, Govinda Bhattarai of the Nepali Congress, and Bhagwati Neupane of the CPN-UML have filed their candidacies. This constituency is being closely watched, as Wagle has previously secured a victory here. Local journalist Krishna Neupane notes that, as a former Vice-Chair of the National Planning Commission, Wagle’s position remains strong. In Sarlahi–4, Nepali Congress President Thapa confronts Dr. Amaresh Kumar Singh in a high-stakes contest, with both camps intensifying efforts to win over voters. Singh had won three consecutive polls earlier and is regarded as a major challenge to Thapa.

While it would be premature to forecast the final results, political analysts suggest that no single party is likely to secure a majority government. There is a high probability of a hung parliament, with coalition-building necessary to form a government.

Youth sentiment remains decisive, with many rejecting traditional parties and demanding transparency, economic revival, employment generation, merit-based public service, and anti-corruption measures. At the same time, younger leaders within established parties—such as Pradeep Paudel of Congress, Gokarna Bista of UML, Madhav Sapkota of the Nepali Communist Party, Rabindra Mishra, and Ranjit Tamang of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party—are seen as development-oriented and accessible, creating a nuanced electoral dynamic.

This election also sees the absence of several prominent leaders, including Sher Bahadur Deuba, Prakash Man Singh, Purna Bahadur Khadka, Dilendra Badu, Bamdev Gautam, and Jhal Nath Khanal, increasing the risk of losses for their parties. Political analysts warn that the Nepali Congress may fail to secure additional seats if senior leaders like Deuba, Khadka, and Singh do not actively support Gagan Kumar Thapa and the election campaign.

Security is a critical concern, with authorities classifying 48 percent of polling centers in the Tarai region as highly sensitive due to political rivalry and risks of intimidation. Security forces have been deployed to ensure safe and fair voting, and international observers are closely monitoring whether the polls will produce a credible government capable of implementing reforms and maintaining public confidence.

Ultimately, the 5 March 2026 election is about more than winning seats. It is a contest between continuity and change, entrenched political culture, and a new generation’s expectations for accountability, employment, and governance. It will test whether protest-driven energy can translate into institutional reform, whether new and dynamic leaders can succeed against traditional power networks, and whether Nepal can conduct secure elections that satisfy a politically engaged electorate. The outcome will determine whether the country embarks on a period of generational transition and political renewal or continues within the familiar structures of established leadership.

People’s News Monitoring Service.

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